Your weekly roundup of the midterm rental market — built for operators.
Issue #1 · Sep 30, 2026
Welcome to The MTR Roundup. Each week, we cover the midterm rental market (furnished stays of 30 days or more)...what's moving, what the data shows, and why it matters on the ground. A new issue lands every Wednesday, and it's about a five-minute read. Every claim carries a source and a date, so you can check our math. It's written for operators at every stage, from a first unit to a full portfolio.
Top line
Monthly stays reached about 19% of U.S. rental demand by outgrowing short stays from 2019 to 2025 (stays of 28+ days, per AirDNA, Jan 14, 2026). In Q2 2026, Airbnb says short stays grew faster in North America (Airbnb, Aug 6, 2026).
The Lead
Monthly stays outgrew short stays for six years. 2026 reads differently.
From 2019 to 2025, nights on stays of 28+ days grew 136%, vs. 52% for short stays, per AirDNA (Jan 14, 2026). AirDNA's figures count nights booked for stays of 28 or more days on Airbnb, Vrbo, and Booking.com. They do not include Furnished Finder, corporate housing, or insurance temporary-housing placements.
Why it matters. At about 19% of U.S. rental demand by AirDNA's count, the monthly guest is no side channel. Separately, Furnished Finder — a marketplace built for stays of 30 days or more — reports about 300,000 nationwide listings and an average stay of about three months (Furnished Finder stats).
Yes, but. The gap doesn't carry straight into 2026.
- Airbnb's Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Aug 6, 2026) says short-term stays in North America kept outpacing long-term stays (28 days or more, per Airbnb), a mix shift it has seen for more than a year.
- AirDNA's midyear outlook (Jul 8, 2026) says travelers are booking later and taking shorter trips.
The takeaway. "Outgrowing" holds for 2019 to 2025. For 2026, the answer depends on whose platform you ask, which is about the most rental-market answer there is.
The Brief
This week’s quick hits
1. The 30-year mortgage rate is back above 7%. Freddie Mac's weekly average hit 7.03% as of Sep 24, up from 6.95%, its first reading at or above 7% since January 2025.
Operator stake: Costlier acquisitions and refis.
2. Zillow: typical asking rent was $1,948 in August, up 2.5% from a year earlier. Concessions appeared on 39.2% of Zillow rentals.
Operator stake: The unfurnished baseline for furnished pricing.
3. RealPage: concessions eased for a third month but remain more widespread than a year ago. They reached 15.4% of stabilized U.S. apartments in August (14.3% a year earlier) and averaged 11% of asking rent.
Operator stake: Free rent cheapens the unfurnished option.
4. Apartment List: national median rent eased to $1,388 in September. It fell 0.1% month over month, the first decline since January, and remains down 0.4% year over year.
Operator stake: A steadier base for underwriting a furnished premium.
5. Airbnb is moving remaining software-connected hosts to a single 15.5% fee. Hosts on property- or channel-management software who haven't switched yet move from the split host/guest fee to 15.5% deducted from payouts. Unchanged prices mean lower payouts, Airbnb says.
Operator stake: Hosts who don't reprice net less on Airbnb monthly stays (28+ nights, per Airbnb).
6. LA City Planning outlines a temporary vacation-rental program through 2028. An Aug 31 report proposes one for non-primary residences before the Olympics: a Dec 31, 2028 sunset, a 60-day yearly cap on short-term bookings, permits capped at 1% of housing units, and ownership by Dec 31, 2025. It went to committee Sep 8 and hasn't been adopted.
Operator stake: LA limits short-term rentals to primary residences today, so a capped path could pull units from the monthly pool.
By the Numbers
Monthly vs. short-stay growth
+136% vs. +52%
From 2019 to 2025, U.S. nights booked on stays of 28+ days rose 136%, while nights on shorter stays rose 52%, per AirDNA (the 28-day cutoff is AirDNA's).
Why it matters. Those longer stays now make up a bigger slice of the booking pool, about 19% of all rental demand, per AirDNA. AirDNA's figures count nights booked for stays of 28 or more days on Airbnb, Vrbo, and Booking.com. They do not include Furnished Finder, corporate housing, or insurance temporary-housing placements.
Growth in U.S. nights booked, 2019 to 2025: stays of 28+ days vs. under 28 days, per AirDNA (Airbnb, Vrbo, and Booking.com; not Furnished Finder, corporate housing, or insurance temporary-housing placements). Source: AirDNA, Jan 14, 2026, from its Monthly Rental Market Trends Report with Furnished Finder.
Quick Explainer
What "midterm" means
What "midterm" means. Here, furnished stays of 30 days or more: our line, not a national standard. Lodging-tax lines vary widely. California lets cities tax stays unless they run "more than 30 days." Los Angeles taxes a guest's stay of "30 consecutive calendar days or less." Florida exempts written agreements "longer than 6 months." Airbnb uses 28 nights; AirDNA, 28 days. (Checked Sep 27, 2026.)
The Angle
The comparison set moves on Oct 1
With 2026 growth splitting by platform, pricing against the right comparisons matters more than riding a trend. One of them resets Oct 1.
Pro-grade: a budgeting benchmark. GSA's FY2027 per diem rates apply to federal travel from Oct 1, 2026 through Sep 30, 2027. Standard lodging rises from $110 to $113 a night, or $181 a day with meals and incidentals. In California, Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties (excluding Santa Monica) go to $199 from $191, and Santa Monica to $283 from $273. GSA Per Diem Bulletin FTR 27-01, Aug 18, 2026 · county rates: GSA per diem files
Per diem caps federal travel reimbursement; it isn't a market rent. It is, though, a public, dated nightly figure for every area.
One practical tip: For operators quoting monthly rates to traveling professionals, Oct 1 is a natural date to recheck those quotes against the new local per diem and HUD's rent figures.
Market of the Week
Los Angeles: $2,941 typical rent, up 1.6%
Zillow's August rent index for the Los Angeles metro was $2,941, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Rent takes 34.0% of median household income, third-highest among the 50 largest metros, behind New York and Miami. The typical new-buyer payment is $7,382 a month, $4,441 more than rent. Zillow Research, Sep 16, 2026
Why it matters. AirDNA describes monthly-stay growth (stays of 28+ days) as "especially strong in urban markets like New York and Los Angeles" (AirDNA, Jan 14, 2026).
What to watch. The vacation-rental proposal (Brief, item 6) and the $199 federal lodging cap from Oct 1.
Mike’s Corner
I didn't set out to run midterm rentals. I was managing a short-term rental for a friend when the city banned STRs and sent a cease-and-desist. Then a two-month booking came in, and that's how I learned MTRs were a thing. I went looking for more information on this part of the market, which is a big reason this brief exists.
On this week's Lead: several STR operators have told me their numbers are down. I suspect that depends heavily on the market. My read is that midterm demand mostly isn't vacation demand, and that's likely a big part of why it grew faster through 2025.
The number I'm watching in my own units heading into fall is vacancy. People don't like to move over the holidays unless a home repair forces it. So through year-end, I'd rather be a little flexible on rate than carry an empty unit.
Community Corner
What should we track?
It's issue one, so the first question goes to you: what should we be tracking? A market for Market of the Week, a local rule you're watching, a number you can never find a clean source for. Reader questions will shape what we dig into next.
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